Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Key market recovery signals, combined with elevated long-term demand for semiconductors, suggest upward pressure on TER prices, particularly with volatility trending positively.

Bearish Case: Macro-economic pressures and flat recent performance may lead to reduced demand for TER, causing downward price momentum coupled with high put option volumes.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance: Continued price recovery with positive earnings;

2. 20% chance: Market stagnation due to economic headwinds;

3. 15% chance: Sharp drop in share price due to missed earnings;

4. 5% chance: Unexpected events causing significant volatility.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish call debit spread by buying the $105 call and selling the $110 call, targeting expiration in 60 days. This strategy leverages current implied volatility and positions for upward price movement, maximizing risk/reward under stable market conditions.

November 19, 2024