TLYS Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TLYS may benefit from strategic retail initiatives and consumer spending rebound, capitalizing on historical mean-reversion patterns.




Bearish Case: Persistent retail challenges and high implied volatility suggest potential for further price declines or increased market instability.




Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of moderate recovery, 50% continued volatility, 20% risk of further decline. Factors include consumer trends, retail strategies.




Trading Oracle: Deploy credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) on TLYS, targeting 5.00/7.50 strikes with 1-2 month expiration to capitalize on high implied volatility and mean-reversion. This strategy offers potential premium capture while managing risk.



February 25, 2025


Tillys Forecast

TLYS        Tillys











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TLYS



COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (0.93)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (0.92)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (0.91)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.91)


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TLYS



UBER Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBER  Uber (0.01)


IMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMO  Imperial Oil (0.01)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)


PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (-0.02)


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TLYS



VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.87)


EAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EAT  Brinker International (-0.88)


PM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PM  Philip Morris International (-0.88)


PPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPC  Pilgrim's Pride (-0.88)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.89)









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