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TLYS Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: TLYS may benefit from strategic retail initiatives and consumer spending rebound, capitalizing on historical mean-reversion patterns.

Bearish Case: Persistent retail challenges and high implied volatility suggest potential for further price declines or increased market instability.

Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of moderate recovery, 50% continued volatility, 20% risk of further decline. Factors include consumer trends, retail strategies.

Trading Oracle: Deploy credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) on TLYS, targeting 5.00/7.50 strikes with 1-2 month expiration to capitalize on high implied volatility and mean-reversion. This strategy offers potential premium capture while managing risk.

February 25, 2025

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TLYS Tillys

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TLYS

COTY Coty (0.95)

LEA Lear (0.94)

XRX Xerox (0.93)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (0.92)

CNI Canadian National Railway (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TLYS

TS Tenaris S.A. (0.0)

URBN Urban Outfitters (0.0)

LEN Lennar (-0.0)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (0.0)

NVST Envista (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TLYS

MLI Mueller Industries (-0.91)

PPTA Perpetua Resources (-0.91)

AGX Argan (-0.92)

BSX Boston Scientific (-0.92)

VIRT Virtu Financial (-0.92)

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