Bullish Case: TPL's record revenues, robust growth in water sales, and highest ever quarterly royalty production signal strong future performance, especially considering strategic investments in its water and land assets.


Bearish Case: Recent steep price declines and high customer concentration expose TPL to significant revenue volatility; reliance on fluctuating commodity prices poses continued risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery in commodity prices leading to increased royalties (40%).

2. Expansion in water services driving revenue growth (45%).

3. Customer diversification reducing revenue volatility (30%).


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April 20, 2024


Texas Pacific Land Forecast

TPL        Texas Pacific Land
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)











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