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TPL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: TPL's implied volatility is higher than SPY, with strong historical returns, indicating potential price appreciation. Positive asset growth supports this.

Bearish Case: High customer concentration and commodity dependency pose risks. Elevated implied volatility and mean-reversion patterns suggest possible downside.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Sector growth continues (65%).

2. Commodity price recovery boosts royalties (35%).

3. Increased volatility from customer risk (40%).

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February 16, 2025

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