TPL Forecast


Bullish Case: Anticipated inclusion in the S&P MidCap 400 on June 24th coupled with a significant special dividend should drive stronger investor interest and potential price appreciation in the short to mid-term.


Bearish Case: High revenue volatility due to commodity price fluctuations and customer concentration, combined with recent steep price declines, poses substantial downside risks. Mean reversion tendencies indicate potential for further losses.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Significant price appreciation post S&P MidCap 400 inclusion (50%)

2. Revenue volatility from commodity price fluctuations (45%)

3. Further price declines due to mean reversion (40%)

4. Increased investor interest driven by special dividend (55%)


Trading Oracle: Sell a bearish call credit spread with 1-3 month expiration. Current bearish patterns, revenue volatility and recent steep price decline offer an edge. Mean reversion trends and fears of price dips suggest a high probability of profitability.


June 23, 2024


Texas Pacific Land Forecast

TPL      Texas Pacific Land











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