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TPL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: TPL's extensive land holdings in the Permian Basin and robust royalty streams position it for long-term growth amid rising energy prices.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility, mean-reverting price action, and customer concentration indicate potential downside risk, especially with regulatory changes.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of sector growth, leveraging strategic assets.
50% likelihood of mean reversion impacting prices.
30% potential regulatory impact on land use.

May 21, 2025

Texas Pacific Land Forecast

TPL Texas Pacific Land

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TPL

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (0.91)

TRGP Targa Resources (0.9)

CRH CRH Plc (0.87)

AXON Axon Enterprise (0.87)

RCL Royal Caribbean (0.85)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TPL

IDN Intellicheck (-0.0)

POOL Pool (-0.01)

ANET Arista Networks (-0.01)

VTRS Viatris (-0.02)

IRM Iron Mountain (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TPL

STM New York Shares (-0.77)

ADNT Adient (-0.77)

TDW Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.78)

NVO Novo Nordisk (-0.78)

RCKT Rocket Pharmaceuticals (-0.78)

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