TXRH Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TXRH's history of consistent growth, expansion, and robust brand loyalty convey optimism. Lower implied volatilities support potential price stability, suggesting upside potential.




Bearish Case: Persisting cost inflation in labor/beef poses risks, squeezing margins. Mean reversion tendencies and high put volumes imply possible downward pressure.




Potential Outcomes: 45% sales growth recovery, 35% margin squeeze impacts price negatively, 20% stable performance maintaining current levels.




Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread, buying $170 calls and selling $175 calls expiring in 30 days. Favorable volatility skew, consistent sales growth, and positive sentiment. Target 60% probability of profit.



January 10, 2025


Texas Roadhouse Forecast

TXRH        Texas Roadhouse











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TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.91)


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TXRH



S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.0)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.01)


GEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEL  Genesis Energy (0.02)


ACB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACB  Aurora Cannabis (-0.02)


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TXRH



XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.84)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.85)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.86)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.87)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)









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