UAA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: UAA's strategic partnerships and rising brand engagements may strengthen market confidence. The recent recovery signs and upward forecast from Helium suggest an optimistic future trajectory.


Bearish Case: Declining sales in North America and high inventory levels may dampen investor sentiment. Ongoing legal concerns and weak market performance cast shadows over UAA's potential recovery.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of continued price decline due to persistent inventory issues.

2. 30% chance of stabilization as new products gain traction.

3. 20% chance of rapid recovery if partnerships significantly boost brand visibility.


Trading Oracle: Open a bearish credit spread. Sell UAA $6.50 puts and buy $6.00 puts expiring in ~30 days to exploit expected mean reversion and low volatility. With current low implied volatility and market uncertainty, this strategy targets moderate returns with a high probability of profit.


July 25, 2024


Under Armour Forecast

UAA      Under Armour











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UAA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.53)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.3)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.65)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UAA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.3)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.53)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.65)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UAA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.53)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.3)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.65)





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