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UDN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: UDN shows bullish potential with a mean-reverting trend and a recent price uptick, supported by a flat term structure indicating contained uncertainty.



Bearish Case: UDN faces bearish risks due to historical declines and external pressures affecting USD, though recent stability in implied volatility offers some balance.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 50% chance of stable prices due to mean reversion.
  • 30% probability of decline from historical trends.
  • 20% chance of short-term uptick from market volatility.



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May 11, 2025


Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Forecast

UDN        Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UDN


EWW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWW  iShares MSCI Mexico (0.83)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (0.81)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (0.66)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (0.65)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UDN


PHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHG  Koninklijke Philips (-0.0)


IBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IBN  ICICI (0.0)


FCG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCG  First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Natural Gas (-0.01)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (0.01)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UDN


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.79)


MRVL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRVL  Marvell Technology (-0.79)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (-0.8)


MAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAC  Macerich (-0.8)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (-0.82)







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