UDN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: UDN's recent gain of 7% over 60 days suggests a bullish trend, supported by low implied volatility and relative USD weakness.




Bearish Case: The flat recent price action and historical trends showing decline align with high implied volatility, suggesting downside risk remains significant.




Potential Outcomes: Expect a 60% chance of stable prices, 25% chance of decline due to historical trends, and 15% chance of a short-term uptick as mean reversion occurs.




Trading Oracle:
Based on UDN's low implied volatility and a neutral price forecast, consider the Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Selling ATM put options while buying OOTM put options leverages potential stability with minimal downside risk. Favorable implied odds suggest high profitability potential.



April 04, 2025


Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Forecast

UDN        Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish











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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UDN



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WH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WH  Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (-0.82)


GGAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GGAL  Grupo Financiero Galicia (-0.84)









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