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UDN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: UDN's recent gain of 7% over 60 days suggests a bullish trend, supported by low implied volatility and relative USD weakness.



Bearish Case: The flat recent price action and historical trends showing decline align with high implied volatility, suggesting downside risk remains significant.



Potential Outcomes: Expect a 60% chance of stable prices, 25% chance of decline due to historical trends, and 15% chance of a short-term uptick as mean reversion occurs.



Trading Oracle:
Based on UDN's low implied volatility and a neutral price forecast, consider the Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Selling ATM put options while buying OOTM put options leverages potential stability with minimal downside risk. Favorable implied odds suggest high profitability potential.


April 04, 2025


Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Forecast

UDN        Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish

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Assets that tend to move strongly with UDN


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (0.79)


WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (0.78)


TAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAN  Invesco Solar (0.76)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (0.76)


STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UDN


QGEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QGEN  Qiagen (0.0)


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (-0.02)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.03)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.03)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UDN


RJF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RJF  Raymond James Financial (-0.81)


ZM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZM  Zoom Video Communications (-0.81)


BBW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBW  Build A Bear Workshop (-0.82)


CLBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLBT  Cellebrite DI (-0.82)


YPF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YPF  YPF (-0.82)







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