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UI Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: UI's price return over longer holdings is positive, and ongoing research in the ubiquitin space could lead to breakthroughs boosting valuation.



Bearish Case: Security concerns persist, and recent price declines indicate negative sentiment. Research complexities may delay impactful advancements.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Ubiquitin breakthroughs boost UI (40%).

2. Persistent security issues lower stock (30%).

3. Market stability (30%).



Trading Oracle: Deploy credit spreads to capitalize on mean-reversion and short-term bearish sentiment. Target a 1-2 month period with limited volatility exposure.


February 19, 2025


Ubiquiti Forecast

UI        Ubiquiti

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AXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXP  American Express (0.96)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.96)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.95)


ONON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONON  On (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UI


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (0.0)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.0)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (-0.03)


TYO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYO  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.03)


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (-0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UI


CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNI  Canadian National Railway (-0.9)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.92)


WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (-0.92)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.92)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.94)







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