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AI UMC Forecast

Bullish Case: UMC's recent flat trading and favorable historical returns suggest a potential rebound. Increasing AI interest and favorable volatility metrics could drive upward momentum, positioning UMC for solid gains in the semiconductor market.

Bearish Case: Despite favorable historical trends, current UMC price stagnation and high market uncertainty indicate potential downward pressure. If broader market trends remain negative, UMC could see further declines, especially with rising volatility in options.

Potential Outcomes:

1) UMC rallies 25% amid AI momentum (30% chance).

2) Stagnation persists, with no significant price movement (50% chance).

3) UMC declines 20% due to negative market trends (20% chance).

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August 21, 2024

United Micro Electronics Forecast

UMC United Micro Electronics

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UMC

LOGI Logitech International (0.83)

ADI Analog Devices (0.81)

EPP BTC iShares MSCI Pacific (0.81)

QCOM Qualcomm (0.8)

UBS UBS (0.8)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UMC

MDLZ Mondelez International (-0.0)

OVV Ovintiv (-0.01)

FTV Fortive (-0.01)

LNG Cheniere Energy (-0.01)

RDFN Redfin (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UMC

MED Medifast (-0.71)

VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.77)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.77)

SH ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.77)

SQQQ ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.79)

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