VMI Forecast


Bullish Case: VMI's historical mean reversion and strong recent price performance suggest continued bullish momentum. High investor confidence and increased trading volume support upward potential.


Bearish Case: Elevated implied volatility and insider selling signals caution. Market volatility and economic downturn risks could drive further price declines, especially given recent high valuations.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued appreciation via high investor interest (60%).

2. Price decline from market volatility (30%).

3. Sideways movement due to mean reversion (10%). These probabilities are drawn from past performance and recent trading data.


Trading Oracle: Trade debit spreads (Helium Long Volatility) focusing on near-the-money calls expiring in 1-2 months. The expected high volatility can maximize gains from bullish reversals, leveraging mean reversion and recent bullish risk bias. Target exit at 20% gain.


July 16, 2024


Valmont Industries Forecast

VMI      Valmont Industries











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