UVIX Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: With UVIX's volatility implied by Helium lower than the market forecast, there is potential for upward momentum in the short-term, driven by market corrections.


Bearish Case: Historical mean reversion of UVIX, combined with flat volatility term structure and current downtrend, suggests potential for further declines in UVIX prices.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Market underestimates near-term volatility, UVIX spikes: 25% probability.

2. Continued bear sentiment and stabilization: 60% probability.

3. Unforeseen events trigger sharp increases in volatility: 15% probability.


Trading Oracle: Trade UVIX with a bullish 9-day outlook using a credit spread. Buy 1 $5.5 strike put and sell 4 $4.5 strike puts. This strategy leverages current trends with an 87% profit probability and optimal risk/reward.


July 18, 2024


VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures Forecast

UVIX      VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UVIX



IONS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONS  Ionis Pharmaceuticals (0.69)


NOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOC  Northrop Grumman (0.68)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (0.64)


AKAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AKAM  Akamai (0.59)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UVIX



TXRH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXRH  Texas Roadhouse (0.0)


TUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TUP  Tupperware Brands (-0.0)


DPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DPST  Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (-0.0)


XLRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLRE  Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UVIX



OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.81)


NOK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOK  Nokia (-0.84)


MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (-0.85)


IVR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVR  Invesco Mortgage (-0.85)


HAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAS  Hasbro (-0.87)





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