VPU Forecast


Bullish Case: VPU's mean reversion history, improved sector valuations, and low volatility make it likely to rise. Institutional buying shows confidence. A low expense ratio adds value. [Business Insider][defenseworld.net][defenseworld.net][defenseworld.net][Yahoo]


Bearish Case: Negative AI forecast, declining trade volume, and recent underperformance signal potential downside risk. The macroeconomic slowdown makes utilities vulnerable. [defenseworld.net][seekingalpha.com][zacks.com][Helium][Helium]


Potential Outcomes: High likelihood of modest gains (35%) due to mean reversion, defensive sector appeal, and institutional interest. Moderate downside risk (25%) from negative forecasts and economic headwinds. Even split risks (40%). [defenseworld.net][cr.openjdk.org][defenseworld.net][Helium][Helium]


Trading Oracle: Best strategy: Bullish outlook with short-term debit spreads (Helium Long Volatility). Use spreads like August $148/$152 calls. This structure captures expected mean reversion, leveraging low near-term volatility (~13.4%).


July 10, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Utilities Forecast

VPU      Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Utilities











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AEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEP  American Electric Power (0.92)


NEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEE  NextEra Energy (0.9)


DAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAL  Delta Air Lines (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VPU



SSTK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSTK  Shutterstock (-0.0)


TAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAN  Invesco Solar (-0.0)


CAH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAH  Cardinal Health (-0.0)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (0.0)


EXPE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXPE  Expedia (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VPU



YANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YANG  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (-0.66)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (-0.67)


DLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLO  DLocal (-0.71)


JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JDST  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.73)


DUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DUST  Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X S (-0.79)





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