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Bullish Case: The implied volatility for VSS is currently high, indicating strong potential for upward price movement as market sentiment shifts positively towards future earnings growth from Delta-class vehicles poised for development by 2026.

Bearish Case: Market volatility remains elevated and historical price stagnation implies a bearish outlook due to higher uncertainty surrounding regulatory challenges and potential delays in operationalization, which may hinder immediate price recovery.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful Delta-class rollout (40%);

2. Regulatory delays causing price stagnation (30%);

3. Improved market sentiment boosts prices (20%);

4. Unexpected financial downturn impacting operations (10%).

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a debit spread by buying VSS 121.00 Calls and selling VSS 124.00 Calls to leverage high implied volatility and capture potential bull-run as positive operational news materializes through Q1 2025.

September 18, 2024