VTNR Forecast


Bullish Case: An upside exists if Vertex Energy overcomes legal issues, improves operational efficiencies, and capitalizes on the upcoming regulatory changes in clean energy, potentially leading to a significant price rebound from its historical lows.


Bearish Case: Continuous legal challenges and poor financial performance could lead to further declines, exacerbated by high implied volatility signals indicating market anticipation of adverse news.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Legal resolution favorable (20%): 50-70% rally,

2. Continued legal woes (50%): Additional 20-40% decline,

3. Major operational breakthrough (15%): 80-100% spike,

4. Persistent market stagnation (15%): Minimal movement or gradual decline.


Trading Oracle: Bearish bias suggested. Utilize Helium Short Volatility strategy through credit spreads – sell high IV options like VTNR 07/19/2024 1.50 C (171.9% IV) and buy a lower IV option. Target short to mid-term (3-6 months) for premium capture as current market advisories and legal issues sustain pressure on VTNR. High reward-to-risk, positive edge trade irrespective of underlying market performance.


June 28, 2024


Vertex Energy Forecast

VTNR      Vertex Energy











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VTNR



MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.96)


WW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WW  WW International (0.96)


GPRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPRE  Green Plains (0.95)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (0.93)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VTNR



NVCR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVCR  NovoCure (0.0)


TRUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRUP  Trupanion (-0.0)


PATH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PATH  UiPath (-0.0)


SMAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMAR  Smartsheet (0.01)


ZBH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZBH  Zimmer Biomet (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VTNR



NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.94)


GDDY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDDY  Godaddy (-0.94)


CLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLS  Celestica (-0.95)


TME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TME  Tencent Music Entertainment Group - (-0.95)


SPOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPOT  Spotify Technology (-0.95)





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