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WBA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: WBA's acquisition by Sycamore Partners may infuse fresh capital and strategic flexibility, potentially revitalizing its operations and enhancing profitability. The healthcare expansion initiatives support a positive growth trajectory.



Bearish Case: Ongoing regulatory challenges, store closures, and competition from online retailers pose significant hurdles. The DOJ lawsuit and high debt levels exacerbate financial strain, threatening further declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance of strategic refocus under Sycamore leading to recovery.
  • 50% chance operational challenges and DOJ lawsuit cause price declines.
  • 20% chance unexpected events trigger speculative gains.



Trading Oracle:
Implement a Bearish Short Volatility strategy. WBA faces regulatory and competitive pressures with high implied volatility. Selling ATM call options and buying more OTM call options maximizes benefit from market uncertainty, offering a 53% potential return. Target a high edge to leverage current market sentiment.


March 18, 2025


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GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (0.73)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WBA


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.04)


MP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MP  MP Materials (-0.05)


SEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEE  Sealed Air (0.05)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.05)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.06)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WBA


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (-0.72)


BIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIP  Brookfield Infrastructure (-0.74)


ZETA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZETA  Zeta Global Holdings Corp (-0.78)


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (-0.78)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (-0.81)







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