WTI Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: A potential WTI recovery driven by reduced supply and increasing demand could catalyze a price surge, especially following declining inventory levels. Easing interest rates may further stimulate economic growth, enhancing energy consumption.


Bearish Case: Continued weak economic indicators and high crude inventories may lead to further price declines. Geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in global demand could exacerbate bearish sentiment, maintaining low WTI prices.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery due to supply constraints (30%).

2. Continued flat pricing due to mediocre economic conditions (50%).

3. Downturn driven by high inventory levels and poor demand signals (20%).


Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread on WTI, selling near-term OTM calls while buying further OTM puts. This strategy capitalizes on likely sideways movements, with a focus on downside protection. Target a 3-month outlook, prioritizing high probability to profit through premium collection.


July 24, 2024


W & T Offshore Forecast

WTI      W & T Offshore











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with WTI



WW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WW  WW International (0.94)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.94)


GPRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPRE  Green Plains (0.94)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (0.93)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WTI



NVCR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVCR  NovoCure (-0.0)


BBAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBAI  BigBear.ai (0.0)


GPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPC  Genuine Parts (-0.01)


UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCO  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (0.01)


PATH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PATH  UiPath (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WTI



GDDY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDDY  Godaddy (-0.94)


VST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VST  Vistra (-0.94)


CL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CL  Colgate-Palmolive (-0.94)


SPOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPOT  Spotify Technology (-0.95)


VRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRT  Vertiv (-0.95)





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