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XLE Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Geopolitical tensions and recovering global demand signal a potential upside for XLE. Low supply and high implied volatility suggest upward price momentum, making a bullish outlook favorable.



Bearish Case: Increased US production and macroeconomic concerns pose risks to XLE's price. The current term structure indicates a backslide in volatility, potentially leading to price corrections.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 1. XLE rises by 5-10% due to geopolitical tensions (35% probability).
  • 2. XLE drops by 5-10% due to oversupply (40% probability).
  • 3. XLE trades flat within ±2% (25% probability).



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish strategy by executing a debit spread, buying the $95 call and selling the $98 call with a short-term focus. This positions you for potential upside while managing risk through defined losses, leveraging high implied volatility for profit.


November 27, 2024


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XLE        Energy Select Sector SPDR

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XLE


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.9)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.83)


CPRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPRT  Copart (0.83)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.81)


REAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REAL  Therealreal (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLE


HDB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HDB  HDFC (-0.0)


TALO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TALO  Talos Energy (0.0)


RILY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RILY  B. Riley Financial (0.01)


ALGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGN  Align Technology (0.01)


TRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRP  TC Energy (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLE


IGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGT  International Game Technology (-0.69)


ADBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADBE  Adobe (-0.71)


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.75)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.78)


ZTS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZTS  Zoetis (-0.78)







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