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XLI Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Infrastructure spending and strong industrial performance favor XLI upside. Lower volatility suggests stable market conditions, supporting growth potential.



Bearish Case: High put volume and elevated helium volatility indicate downside risks. Supply chain issues and economic uncertainty could depress industrial growth.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. 50% chance XLI sees 5-10% rise due to infrastructure spending.
  2. 30% chance of 10% drop from economic headwinds and supply chain issues.
  3. 20% odds of flat trading due to mixed signals.


May 15, 2025


Industrial Select Sector SPDR Forecast

XLI        Industrial Select Sector SPDR

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XLI


MTB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTB  M & T (0.93)


VT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock (0.92)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.92)


DVY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVY  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Select Dividend (0.92)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLI


FDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDX  Fedex (-0.0)


SIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIG  Signet Jewelers (-0.0)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.0)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (-0.01)


LASR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LASR  nLIGHT (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLI


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.54)


EWW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWW  iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.57)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.59)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.64)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (-0.69)







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