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XLU Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Short-term bullish on XLU due to robust dividend yield and green energy adaptation, amidst moderate volatility decreases.

Bearish Case: Bearish sentiment driven by regulatory changes, high put volume, and economic uncertainty affecting utilities.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of range-bound movement; 25% chance of short-term rally; 15% chance of market downturn impacting utilities.

Trading Oracle: Implement a credit spread: sell XLU $79 calls, buy $81 calls expiring in 45 days. Utilize Helium's edge with a bearish sentiment spread due to current market conditions.

January 17, 2025

Utilities Select Sector SPDR Forecast

XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XLU

AFL Aflac (0.95)

TT Trane (0.95)

EVRG Evergy (0.94)

PNW Pinnacle West (0.94)

SO Southern (0.94)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLU

TMDX Transmedics (0.0)

FCX Freeport-McMoRan (-0.0)

GTLB Gitlab (-0.02)

HCC Warrior Met Coal (0.02)

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLU

COTY Coty (-0.86)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.87)

SHLS Shoals (-0.88)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.91)

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