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XLU Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: An expected decline in interest rates could enhance XLU's attractiveness due to strong dividends, supported by stable institutional interest in utility stocks, indicating potential for price recovery.



Bearish Case: Economic uncertainties and increasing competition from renewables may pressure XLU prices downward, coupled with high implied volatility signaling market anxiety and potential for significant declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of price recovery above $78 if interest rates decline.
  • 35% chance of price stagnation between $74-$77.
  • 15% chance of a drop below $72 due to economic headwinds.
  • 10% chance of extreme volatility causing significant price swings.



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread by buying XLU $75 calls and selling $77 calls, targeting expiration in January 2025. This strategy offers adequate profit potential while taking advantage of projected volatility decline. High probabilities align with supportive market conditions and data trends.


December 19, 2024


Utilities Select Sector SPDR Forecast

XLU        Utilities Select Sector SPDR

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PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (0.97)


NGD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGD  New Gold (0.96)


EVRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVRG  Evergy (0.96)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLU


HIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIVE  HIVE Blockchain (-0.0)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (-0.0)


JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOBY  Joby Aviation (0.01)


GIII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIII  G-III Apparel (-0.01)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLU


SCHL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHL  Scholastic (-0.9)


AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (-0.91)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.91)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.92)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.93)







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