Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: With Xometry's market expansion and improving margins, coupled with recent upward price momentum and decreasing implied volatility, a rebound appears likely, especially if broader market sentiments improve post-election.

Bearish Case: A potential downturn could arise from elevated implied volatility signals and macroeconomic pressures. Current sentiment towards Xometry indicates hesitance, driven by broader economic uncertainties and bearish options activity.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price recovery to $35 (40%) driven by improved market conditions.

2. Continued stagnation around $28 (30%) due to macro headwinds.

3. Decline to $25 (20%) from weakened investor sentiment.

4. Sharp drop to $22 (10%) if underlying fundamentals deteriorate significantly.

Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish debit spread by buying the December $30 Call and selling the $32 Call to capitalize on potential upward momentum while managing risk. Implied volatilities suggest favorable conditions for this strategy, offering high reward-to-risk while leveraging improved market conditions post-election.

November 21, 2024