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XOP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: An increase in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions along with robust oil demand could propel XOP upwards. Favorable seasonal trends around year-end are likely to sustain bullish sentiments.



Bearish Case: Continued weak oil prices amid economic slowdowns may lead to reduced investments in XOP, exacerbated by environmental regulations and increasing popularity of renewables, threatening upside potential.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of bullish reversal leading to $150 or above, driven by high volatility and strong demand.
  • 30% chance of stagnation around $125 due to market indecision.
  • 10% chance of decline below $120 due to geopolitical tensions and economic woes.



Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish debit spread by buying $125 calls and selling $130 calls expiring in a month. This strategy capitalizes on low implied volatility and positions for a potential rebound in XOP, with a high probability of profit due to favorable risk-to-reward dynamics.


December 20, 2024


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XOP        SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

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Assets that tend to move strongly with XOP


FENY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FENY  Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Energy Index (0.85)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.79)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.78)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (0.77)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XOP


SHAK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHAK  Shake Shack (0.0)


BMEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMEA  Biomea Fusion (0.01)


LYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYV  Live Nation Entertainment (-0.01)


BBW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBW  Build A Bear Workshop (0.02)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XOP


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.64)


INFY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INFY  Infosys (-0.65)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.69)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (-0.7)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.73)







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