ERX Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Flat ERX term structure, higher Helium volatility vs. market, recent price gain, and bullish option volume suggest upward momentum.


Bearish Case: Long-term downtrend, significant historical underperformance, and flat volatility warn potential weakness and downward pressure.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Sideways (55%),

2) Minor uptick (25%),

3) Downtrend (20%). Probabilities based on historical patterns and current term structure.


Trading Oracle: Sell a 67/68 call credit spread expiring in 7 days. This approach capitalizes on flat vol and anticipates slight bearish reversal. High 84% market odds, Helium edge 85% for positive profit.


July 16, 2024


Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares Forecast

ERX      Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ERX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.98)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.23)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.38)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ERX



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.23)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.38)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.98)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ERX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.98)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.23)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.38)





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