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Bullish Case: UGA has shown robust growth over the past years, surging 121.5% from five years ago. Continual growth paired with a current bullish sentiment (28% more bullish risk) makes a compelling case for a continuance of this upward trajectory.


Bearish Case: Recent flat price action, paired with high implied volatility, suggests potential over-valuation and market uncertainty. With little change just over the past month and week, the threat of a price correction or stagnation looms.


Potential Outcomes:

1. UGA maintains its upward trend (Probability 60%).

2. Volatility spikes leading to sharp price corrections (Probability 30%).

3. Consolidation around the current price range from market equilibrium (Probability 10%).


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April 25, 2024


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

UGA        United States Commodity Funds
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











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XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.81)


USO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USO  United States Commodity Funds (0.8)


ERX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERX  Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (0.8)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to UGA



IDCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IDCC  Interdigital (0.0)


CRMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRMD  CorMedix (0.0)


XBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XBI  SPDR Biotech (-0.0)


WNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WNC  Wabash National (0.0)


BIDU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIDU  Baidu (0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against UGA



CMCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMCL  Caledonia Mining (-0.66)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.68)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.73)


DRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRIP  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.78)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.8)





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