AAL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Steady travel demand and operational recovery strengthen AAL's future prospects despite recent setbacks.




Bearish Case: Recent accidents and labor issues sour public sentiment, straining AAL’s operational recovery.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Travel demand rebound (40%)
  2. Operational disruptions from labor disputes (30%)
  3. Continued safety concerns impacting brand trust (30%)




Trading Oracle:
Given the heightened implied volatility and safety incidents, adopting a bearish long volatility strategy by buying OOTM put options capitalizes on potential declines and market nervousness.



March 28, 2025


American Airlines Forecast

AAL        American Airlines











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