ABG Forecast


Bullish Case: Asbury Automotive's steady growth and potential recovery from disruptions position it favorably. With flat recent price action and historical upward trends, bullish momentum could resume.


Bearish Case: Economic headwinds and recent high-volume put trading signal potential downside risks. Market uncertainty coupled with flat price action raises concerns on sustaining growth momentum.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic growth boosts auto sales (60%): ABG price up 10-15%.

2. Recession impacts sales (30%): ABG drops 5-10%.

3. Insider activities lead to flat trading (10%): Prices remain stable.


Trading Oracle: Trade a short-term bull put spread (credit spread) centered around $230. Sell the Aug16 $230P, buy the Aug16 $220P. Timeframe: 45 days. Leverage higher implied volatility, consistent with Helium forecasts, expecting limited downside risks. Positive edge, high reward:risk, and high probability of profit.


July 07, 2024


Asbury Automotive Forecast

ABG      Asbury Automotive











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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.35)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ABG



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.35)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.48)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ABG



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.35)





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