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ABR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ABR's mean-reverting nature, stable dividends, and insider buying suggest potential stabilization and slight upward movement. The term structure indicates lower future volatility.



Bearish Case: High implied volatilities and significant put volume suggest market skepticism. Past negative returns and external pressures, such as regulatory issues, could lead to further declines.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Stabilization with minor upside due to mean reversion (40%)
2. Continued decline from market pressure and regulatory issues (45%)
3. Strong recovery driven by positive earnings surprises (15%)



Trading Oracle: Position for bearish credit spreads given the higher put volume and market skepticism. Sell $14.0 calls, buy $16.0 calls for May expiry. This leverages implied volatility while controlling risk exposure. Expect 25% profit, integrating protective puts to hedge against unexpected swings.


February 16, 2025


Arbor Realty Forecast

ABR        Arbor Realty

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ABR


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INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ABR


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AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.6)


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