ABR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ABR's strong fundamentals, consistent dividend yields, and lower volatility suggest potential for price stabilization. Insider confidence remains high.




Bearish Case: Intense put options volume and lingering market skepticism, coupled with high volatility, indicate potential downside risk.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable performance due to dividends (30%).

2. Price decline from market pressure (50%).

3. Minor recovery from investor confidence (20%).




Trading Oracle: Consider bearish credit spreads due to high put volumes and volatility. Sell ABR $14.0 call and buy $15.0 call expiring in ~56 days. High probability of profit with significant volatility as a hedge. Target 20-25% profit.



December 28, 2024


Arbor Realty Forecast

ABR        Arbor Realty











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