Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: ABUS is positioned to leverage upcoming clinical trial results that could unlock significant revenue and bolster future partnerships. The current implied volatility suggests market anticipations of substantial price movements, increasing potential for upward price action.

Bearish Case: Ongoing legal issues and uncertainty surrounding clinical trial results create risks that could depress ABUS’s stock value. High implied volatility indicates a strong possibility of downward price movement, compounded by investor fear during critical upcoming announcements.

Potential Outcomes:

• Clinical trial success (30%): potential price rise to $5.
• Favorable legal outcomes (25%): stability above $4.
• Continued litigation complications (30%): drop to $2.50.
• Negaive trial results (15%): significant decline below $2.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread with ABUS 04/2025 4.00C and 5.00C options, utilizing recent volatility trends. This approach optimally leverages the upcoming trial catalysts while managing risks, given the likelihood of significant price adjustments in the near term.

December 03, 2024