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ABUS Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ABUS has a litigation edge with possible patent victories against Moderna. High implied volatilities could signal positive sentiment preceding trial results, potentially elevating stock significantly within months.

Bearish Case: Ongoing litigation and trial risks amplify uncertainty, with the recent downward price trend increasing negative sentiment. High implied volatility suggests potential adverse outcomes leading to price declines.

Potential Outcomes: 40% favorable patent outcome, 25% adverse legal setback, 20% positive trial results, 15% significant negative trial result. Upcoming catalysts drive these probabilities with high volatility expectations.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread with ABUS 06/2025 4.00C and 5.00C. High IV and potential positive outcomes provide upside within six months. This strategy leverages expected volatility shifts and potential patent wins.

January 01, 2025

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ABUS Arbutus Biopharma

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ABUS

ILMN Illumina (0.02)

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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ABUS

IRTC iRhythm (-0.86)

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DIN Dine Brands (-0.86)

HTZ Hertz Global Holdings (-0.87)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.88)

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