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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increasing call option volumes and a bullish implied volatility trend suggest positive sentiment ahead of potential clinical and legal outcomes. Anticipated patent victories could drive significant upward price movement.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, signaling potential adverse outcomes from upcoming trials or litigation. The historical return trend shows a likelihood of downturns, especially if negative news emerges.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive trial results (30%): Price surge.

2. Favorable patent ruling (40%): Licensing boosts.

3. Negative legal outcomes (30%): Significant price drop.

4. Continued high volatility leads to irrational pricing (50%).

Trading Oracle: Considering the elevated implied volatilities and potential market movements, a bullish strategy using long calls (debit spreads) on ABUS 10/18/2024 4.00 C and 5.00 C is recommended. This aims to capitalize on pre-trial price spikes while managing risks of significant drops if outcomes are unfavorable. Target near-term expirations to maximize gains from volatility shifts.

October 02, 2024