AIG Forecast


Bullish Case: AIG's consistent historical mean reversion and recent insider confidence backed by a low P/B ratio signal potential undervaluation. Combined with high call option volume, further growth is plausible.


Bearish Case: Persistently low option trading volume and implied volatility suggests weak market interest and limited momentum. Economic uncertainties and external shocks may prompt downturn risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Growth from positive fundamentals (35%);

2) Stagnation due to low market interest (40%);

3) Downturn from economic/external factors (25%). Estimated probabilities based on historical data and current indicators.


Trading Oracle: Implement a near-term bullish debit call spread strategy on AIG options. Buy 74.00 Call and sell 75.00 Call expiring on Aug 16, 2024, targeting capitalizing on expected mean reversion and IV surface. Positive reward:risk and high probability-of-profit in 45-day horizon.


July 07, 2024


American International Forecast

AIG      American International











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