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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: ALLE's strong fundamentals, reflected in increased call volume and bullish risk, suggest a potential push towards the $160 level, driven by positive market sentiment and historical performance data.

Bearish Case: Elevated implied volatility for puts indicates heightened market concern about potential declines, coupled with recent flat price action suggesting stagnation could expose ALLE to a drop below $130 in adverse conditions.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increase to $160 (30% chance);

2. Stagnant trading around $143 (50% chance);

3. Drop to $130 (20% chance), reflecting volatility in market sentiment and recent performance metrics.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a debit spread with ALLE 150/160 calls, targeting a 60-day expiration. The elevated implied volatility suggests strong potential movements. Bullish outlook supported by a favorable risk-reward ratio.

September 25, 2024