ARCC Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: With robust fundraising trends and a gradually improving economic outlook, ARCC may capitalize on a growing private credit market, positioning for solid returns in 2025.




Bearish Case: Persistently high market volatility and geopolitical tensions could erode investor confidence, leading to dampened returns and downward pressure on ARCC's stock price.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of market stabilization, boosting ARCC prices.
  • 25% chance of continued volatility, causing price stagnation.
  • 15% chance of a recession, leading to significant declines.




Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish long call spread: buy $22 calls, sell $23 calls expiring in March 2025. This leverages expected upward price movement while benefiting from potential low implied volatility. Aim for consistent profitability in the current market context.



December 17, 2024


Ares Forecast

ARCC        Ares











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