ARCC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ARCC shows potential for steady gains boosted by a stable volatility structure, aligning with historical mean-reversion and gradual investor interest.




Bearish Case: Market volatility risk remains with potential negative shocks from macroeconomic uncertainties or regulatory challenges, stressing ARCC's portfolio.




Potential Outcomes: 35% chance ARCC stabilizes with modest gains; 40% volatility-induced price reduction; 25% regulatory or economic shock leads to decline.




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June 04, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ARCC



BXSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXSL  Blackstone Secured Lending Fund. (0.9)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (0.8)


ET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ET  Energy Transfer LP (0.79)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.78)


BMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMO  Bank of Montreal (0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ARCC



RACE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RACE  Ferrari (-0.0)


ADI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADI  Analog Devices (-0.01)


ENS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENS  Enersys (0.01)


ALLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLY  Ally Financial (-0.01)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARCC



SAFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAFE  Safehold (-0.59)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.61)


HII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HII  Huntington Ingalls Industries (-0.62)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.63)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.65)









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