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ARCC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Improving risk profile and strategic investments position ARCC for growth, supported by declining IV and consistent historical returns.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and economic uncertainties may lead to defaults in loan portfolio, challenging ARCC's resilience.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance: Market stabilization boosts ARCC prices.
40% chance: Rising rates lead to volatility and risks.

Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish debit spread: buy $22 calls, sell $24 calls expiring in June 2025. Leverages low current IV and potential price recovery. Expect modest gains while managing downside risk. High reward:risk ratio based on stable returns and historical performance.

January 22, 2025

Ares Forecast

ARCC Ares

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ARCC

SCHW Charles Schwab (0.82)

MAIN Main Street (0.79)

CRK Comstock Resources (0.79)

USCI United States Commodity Funds (0.78)

CRESY Cresud (0.77)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ARCC

SNPS Synopsys (0.0)

HST Host Hotels & Resorts (-0.0)

PRO Pros (-0.0)

CRSR Corsair Gaming (0.0)

PSFE Paysafe Limited (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARCC

KOLD ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.65)

REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (-0.66)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.69)

NOVA Sunnova Energy International (-0.73)

IQV IQVIA (-0.75)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.