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ARCC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive economic signals and increased fundraising activity could drive ARCC share prices, supported by low implied volatility suggesting stable market confidence.



Bearish Case: Heightened market volatility and rising interest rates may pressure ARCC returns, as suggested by increasing implied volatility trends, indicating market fears.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 55% chance: ARCC sees significant price improvement due to robust fundraising;

2. 30% chance: Limited price growth due to continued market turbulence;

3. 15% chance: Major downturn from economic pressures affecting valuation.



Trading Oracle: Focus on a bullish debit spread strategy by purchasing $22.00 calls and selling $23.00 calls expiring in January 2025. Current low implied volatility coupled with favorable price action offers high probability of profit with reduced risk exposure.


November 14, 2024











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ARCC


CRBG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRBG  SAFG Retirement Services (0.89)


OC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OC  Owens Corning (0.86)


BAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAC  Bank Of America (0.86)


AEYE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEYE  AudioEye (0.85)


C Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   C  Citigroup (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ARCC


F Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   F  Ford Motor (-0.0)


BLDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLDR  Builders Firstsource (0.0)


DOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOW  Dow (-0.0)


AEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEO  American Eagle Outfitters (0.0)


KEYS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KEYS  Keysight (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARCC


LEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEG  Leggett & Platt (-0.76)


TXG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXG  10x Genomics (-0.77)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)


COUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COUR  Coursera (-0.78)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.81)







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