ARDS Forecast


Bullish Case: Aridis Pharmaceuticals (ARDS) has an upcoming Phase 2 clinical trial conducted by BARDA for its ARDS therapeutic drug, offering a potential catalyst for significant price appreciation if results are positive. The historical mean reversion pattern suggests the potential for a rebound from current all-time lows.


Bearish Case: Aridis Pharmaceuticals (ARDS) is currently facing a bearish HeliumTrades AI price forecast and has seen significant price degradation over the past two years. The historical price return surface suggests a high likelihood of continued underperformance over multiple holding periods.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Phase 2 trial success: +50% chance, significant price spike.

2. Neutral/negative trial outcome: -50% chance, price drops further.

3. Strategic partnership: +25% chance, moderate price appreciation.

4. Continued burn of cash reserves without new capital: -75% chance, gradual price decline.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish strategy with Helium short volatility via credit spreads due to negative AI forecast and poor price history. Sell July $0.07 Call credit spreads and buy $0.05 Calls, maximizing potential decay profits if price stagnates/falls. Reassess position before trial results for eventual upside adjustments. Time outlook: 30-60 days.


June 27, 2024


Aridis Pharmaceuticals Forecast

ARDS      Aridis Pharmaceuticals











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