ARVN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Arvinas' collaboration on breast cancer treatment and high demand for call options suggest potential breakthroughs, leading to a significant price surge as the market adjusts to new medical advancements.




Bearish Case: The biotech sector's regulatory challenges and ARVN's unstable historical prices suggest potential downturns if anticipated clinical results fall short, given excessive volatility.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 70% chance of price rise with successful trials (up 40%).

2. 45% risk of decline from regulatory delays (down 30%).

3. 20% impact from market volatility, causing fluctuations (±20%).




Trading Oracle: Short volatility due to flat term structure; sell $22.5 strike call and buy $25.0 strike call. 66% market odds, potential 49% return (121% annualized). This bearish play captures expected volatility reductions amid complex regulatory timelines.



January 22, 2025


Arvinas Forecast

ARVN        Arvinas











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IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (0.87)


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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ARVN



FCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCX  Freeport-McMoRan (0.0)


EH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EH  EHang Holdings Ltd - (-0.02)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (0.03)


XYL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XYL  Xylem (0.03)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (-0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARVN



FRPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRPT  Freshpet (-0.82)


AGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGX  Argan (-0.82)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.83)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.84)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (-0.85)









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