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ASO Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Increased demand during holiday sales could see ASO rise above $60, supported by positive sentiment from recent earnings and strategic initiatives.



Bearish Case: Continued leadership uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures could push ASO down to the $45 level, reflecting weakened consumer spending and investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Holiday sales surpass expectations (35%): ASO rises to $62.

2) Leadership struggles affect strategy (45%): ASO declines to $45.

3) Market corrections impact all retail (20%): ASO plateaus around $50.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish strategy by initiating a debit spread with a long $52 call and short $54 call expiring in 14 days. This leverages implied volatility spikes and targets a quick return at low risk. Adjust positions based on market movements, aiming for a $65 target amidst holiday sales momentum.


November 13, 2024


Academy Sports and Outdoors Forecast

ASO        Academy Sports and Outdoors

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ASO


PII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PII  Polaris (0.85)


HST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HST  Host Hotels & Resorts (0.84)


XRAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRAY  DENTSPLY Sirona (0.82)


ULTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ULTA  Ulta Beauty (0.82)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ASO


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (0.0)


H Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   H  Hyatt Hotels (-0.01)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (0.01)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (0.01)


TTE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTE  TotalEnergies SE (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ASO


MO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MO  Altria (-0.69)


KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (-0.7)


PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (-0.71)


CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (-0.71)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.73)







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