Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Holiday sales are expected to exceed projections, spurred by new product launches and marketing initiatives, potentially lifting ASO stock towards $62-$65 as consumer spending recovers during the festive period.

Bearish Case: Ongoing leadership uncertainties and mixed holiday sales could lead to stagnation or a decline towards $45, as consumer sentiment reflects underlying economic pressures and potential inventory issues.

Potential Outcomes:

• Holiday sales exceed expectations (30%): Price rises to $65.
• Mixed results from holiday season (40%): Stagnation around $54.
• Leadership turmoil impacts strategy (30%): Drops to $45.

Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish call debit spread by purchasing the $55 call and selling the $57 call, targeting potential gains if ASO rises above $62. Anticipate high volatility near holiday earnings, benefiting from a long volatility approach. Focus on expiration within 30 days to capitalize on immediate movement while managing risk effectively.

December 14, 2024