Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increased global demand for freighter aircraft, combined with a favorable historical return trend for 1-2 year holds (red areas in the graph), supports a potential rebound in ATSG's stock price, suggesting a favorable investment environment.

Bearish Case: Ongoing challenges with earnings growth, highlighted by market uncertainties and negative historical trends for shorter holding periods, may suppress ATSG's price, reflecting bearish sentiments.

Potential Outcomes:

• Price rise due to strong freighter demand (40% chance).
• Price drop influenced by continued earnings miss (35% chance).
• Market stabilization, driven by mixed economic signals (25% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy using a long call spread with expiry in March 2025, focusing on $22.50/$25.00 calls. This approach exploits high implied volatility and positive upward trends while providing limited risk. Targeting potential price rebounds offers high reward/risk ratios, with a favorable outlook in the long-term with continued demand increase for cargo services.

November 26, 2024