AX Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Axos Financial has shown strong historical returns and stability. The bullish risk across all tenors is 25% higher than the bearish risk, suggesting potential upside.


Bearish Case: Exposure to commercial real estate and Hindenburg's short report raise substantial concerns. High implied volatility and uncertain future make downside risks significant.


Potential Outcomes: 50% sustained strong performance driven by financial strength, 30% chance of declining investor confidence and price reduction, 20% potential for high volatility and price spikes.


Trading Oracle: Trade bearish short volatility. Sell a $57.5 strike call and buy a $62.5 strike call expiring ~14 days. Market and Helium odds of profit are high (~83%) with returns leveraging slight bearish tilt, aligning with current low percentile option volume and pressured price scenario.


July 09, 2024


Axos Financial Forecast

AX      Axos Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AX



WAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WAL  Western Alliance Bancorp (0.93)


ZION Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZION  Zions Bancorporation N.A (0.92)


IAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Regional Banks (0.92)


OSW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OSW  OneSpaWorld (0.92)


RKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKT  Rocket Companies (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AX



BMEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMEA  Biomea Fusion (-0.0)


ARWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARWR  Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (0.01)


OPRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPRA  Opera (0.01)


IPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IPI  Intrepid Potash (-0.01)


VLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLY  Valley National Bancorp (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AX



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.84)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.85)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.86)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.87)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.87)





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