BHF Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: BHF's rising interest rates and strong annuity sales prop up earnings. The mean-reversion of price suggests recovery potential.


Bearish Case: Macroeconomic volatility and previous underperformance pose risks. High implied volatility signals potential downsides.


Potential Outcomes: 52% chance of modest gains due to improved annuities; 30% chance of continued price decline due to market volatility; 18% chance of stabilization.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread strategy: Buy $45 calls and sell $50 calls expiring in November. Mean-reversion and positive forecasts target controlled risk. High reward-to-risk ratio, leveraging short-term volatility.


July 10, 2024


Brighthouse Financial Forecast

BHF      Brighthouse Financial











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FIVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FIVN  Five9 (0.82)


OTEX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OTEX  Open Text (0.79)


VLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLY  Valley National Bancorp (0.79)


GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (0.78)


TWLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWLO  Twilio (0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BHF



VAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAC  Marriott Vacations Worldwide (0.0)


BEPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEPC  Brookfield Renewable (0.0)


HOLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HOLX  Hologic (-0.0)


GIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIS  General Mills (0.0)


MPW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPW  Medical Properties (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BHF



RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.55)


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (-0.55)


HQY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HQY  Healthequity (-0.57)


AR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AR  Antero Resources (-0.64)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.64)





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