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Bullish Case: A potential FDA approval for Lovo-cel could drive significant stock recovery, boosting investor confidence and market share amidst increasing demand for gene therapies, aligning with the visible upward trends observed in historical return data for BLUE over specific holding periods.

Bearish Case: Continued competition from CRISPR and Vertex's approved therapies may severely hinder BLUE's market penetration, compounded by potential safety concerns and slow patient adoption rates, reflected in historical price stagnation and volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

1. FDA approval of Lovo-cel (60%);

2. Market share loss to CRISPR therapies (30%);

3. Operational issues leading to revenue stagnation (10%). These probabilities are based on historical trends, ongoing competition, and product performance forecasts.

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August 27, 2024