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BND Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: A potential shift towards lower interest rates, driven by recent economic recovery signals, could boost BND demand, leading to price appreciation in the near term.

Bearish Case: Persistently high inflation and additional rate hikes may pressure BND prices further, exacerbating its underperformance in the coming months.

Potential Outcomes: Rate cuts lead to a 40% price rebound (25% probability).
Continuous inflation drives further declines (30%).
Flat economic indicators maintain current levels (45%).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bull call spread with $74 call buying and $76 call selling given favorable volatility patterns. Target January expiry to capitalize on potential BND uptrend with risk managed through defined upper limits and a favorable risk/reward outlook.

November 27, 2024

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BND Vanguard Total Bond Market

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BND

LTPZ PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded (0.92)

TYD Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.85)

EPR EPR Properties (0.8)

RDFN Redfin (0.79)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.77)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BND

COUR Coursera (0.0)

HOG Harley-Davidson (-0.0)

SRRK Scholar Rock (0.01)

ARE Alexandria Real Estate (0.01)

NET Cloudflare (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BND

OXY Occidental Petroleum (-0.68)

XOP SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.7)

ABNB Airbnb (-0.71)

CTRA Coterra Energy (-0.72)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.92)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.