Bullish Case: Despite past controversies, BUD's recent marketing shifts and partnerships may boost brand perception and sales, particularly among recovering segments, signaling a potential comeback.

Bearish Case: Ongoing cultural backlash and high volatility in consumer sentiment could continue to suppress BUD's market share and sales, risking further erosion of the brand image.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful brand recovery leading to a 30% chance of price increase of 10%.

2. Continued backlash resulting in a 50% chance of trading below $50.

3. Strategic buyback leads to a 10% price increase with a 15% probability.

4. Strategic failure leading to significant layoffs, a 5% chance of severe drop below $40.

Trading Oracle: Short-term: Implement a bullish debit spread using $52 strike calls with high implied volatility. Potential for profit increases as sentiment shifts. Longer-term: Consider moving to bearish credit spreads as volatility stabilizes, targeting flat to low activity in early 2025, capitalizing on time decay. Maintain flexibility to adjust based on market sentiment.

December 13, 2024