Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: BUD shows signs of recovery as U.S. sales bounce back after boycotts, aided by strong brand partnerships and improved digital campaigns. Upcoming sports sponsorships could further enhance brand image, boosting stock price. Volatility forecasts are stable, indicating controlled risk.

Bearish Case: Continued cultural backlash may hinder BUD, reflected in persistent high implied volatility and a downward trend in historical returns. Market sentiment remains cautious, suggesting that potential recovery is contingent on rapid brand rehabilitation, which may not materialize.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery through marketing initiatives: 40% chance,

2. Continued declines due to backlash: 45% chance,

3. Stable performance offsetting controversy: 15% chance.

Trading Oracle: Focus on bullish long volatility strategies, such as a debit spread by buying $62.50 calls and selling $65.00 calls. This allows for leverage on positive market sentiment while managing risk. Expect high volatility and potential profit from recovering consumer sentiment.

November 12, 2024