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BUD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Positive reception to new marketing and a shift to non-alcoholic options could drive recovery. Recent campaigns may enhance brand image and sales.

Bearish Case: Volatility and prolonged backlash from past controversies, along with recent Surgeon General warnings, threaten market stability and brand image.

Potential Outcomes: 30% recovery with strategic rebranding, 50% continued sales decline due to lasting backlash, 20% stabilization from diversification efforts.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish short volatility position with credit spreads near-term given the high implied volatility and ongoing controversies. Utilize $50-$55 call spread expiring in 60-90 days to capture time decay, leveraging the flat price action expected.

January 17, 2025

Anheuser-Busch Forecast

BUD Anheuser-Busch

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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PEP Pepsico (0.54)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BUD

ASML New York Shares (-0.0)

OXY Occidental Petroleum (0.01)

CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.01)

ILMN Illumina (0.01)

BEKE KE (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BUD

HIMS Hims & Hers Health (-0.44)

SCHW Charles Schwab (-0.5)

EMR Emerson Electric (-0.5)

GTLS Chart Industries (-0.58)

MCK Mckesson (-0.64)

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