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BZH Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: The low price-to-book ratio and long-term strong returns suggest BZH is undervalued with room for recovery, supported by recent market optimism for energy-efficient homes.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility, coupled with significant recent declines and concerns about debt levels, indicate potential downside risk amid uncertain market conditions.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Price stabilization around $20-$22 (50%) due to flattening volatility.
  2. Upside potential if housing market strengthens, pushing price to $26 (30%).
  3. Further decline to $18 if broader market weakens (20%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a Bearish Long Volatility strategy. Volatility is high, and bearish signals are strong given current market uncertainty and Helium's lower forecast. The strategy capitalizes on downside protection with high return potential.


March 15, 2025


Beazer Homes USA Forecast

BZH        Beazer Homes USA

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Assets that tend to move strongly with BZH


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.9)


PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (0.86)


OMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMC  Omnicom Group (0.83)


TOL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TOL  Toll Brothers (0.79)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BZH


COF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COF  Capital One Financial (0.01)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (-0.01)


ARKK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKK  ARK Innovation (0.01)


PPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPC  Pilgrim's Pride (-0.01)


AXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXP  American Express (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BZH


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.39)


TAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAL  TAL Education (-0.4)


FPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FPI  Farmland (-0.44)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.53)


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (-0.59)







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