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BZH Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: The low price-to-book ratio, supportive option sentiment, and historical returns suggest undervaluation and potential growth, amplified by strong options demand.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility, recent price declines, and the tendency for mean reversion suggest downside risk, with unpredictable broader market conditions heightening uncertainty.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Stabilizes around $22.7-$25 (50%).

2) Decline to $20 due to broader market issues (30%).

3) Upside momentum above $25 if sentiment shifts positively (20%).



Trading Oracle: Bearish Long Volatility is optimal. Despite higher bullish risk, market volatility suggests downside protection via puts, offering high return potential against uncertainty.


May 17, 2025


Beazer Homes USA Forecast

BZH        Beazer Homes USA

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BZH


TPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPH  Tri Pointe Homes (0.94)


PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (0.94)


OMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMC  Omnicom Group (0.92)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.89)


CMCSA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMCSA  Comcast (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BZH


SLNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLNO  Soleno Therapeutics (0.0)


EWC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWC  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Canada (-0.0)


UPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UPST  Upstart (0.0)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.01)


CEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CEG  Constellation Energy (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BZH


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (-0.59)


HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (-0.6)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.61)


TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBF  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.63)


PCRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCRX  Pacira BioSciences (-0.63)







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