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CBRL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: CBRL's recent mean-reverting behavior suggests potential for recovery, supported by elevated bullish sentiment in option volumes and a stable earnings outlook. The loyalty program may enhance customer engagement, driving revenue growth.



Bearish Case: Declining trends in EPS and high dividend payout ratios raise sustainability concerns, while elevated implied volatility indicates market skepticism. Failure to meet earnings expectations could exacerbate downward pressure on stock price.



Potential Outcomes:

1) EPS beats estimates (30%);

2) Dividend cut within the next year (60%);

3) Strong customer engagement boosts revenue (40%);

4) Continued stock price decline near-term (70%);

5) Market volatility impacts trading sentiment negatively (50%).



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October 27, 2024


Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Forecast

CBRL        Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CBRL


FSLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLY  Fastly (0.94)


RHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RHI  Robert Half International (0.93)


U Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   U  Unity Software (0.93)


LULU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LULU  Lululemon Athletica inc. (0.93)


ALGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGT  Allegiant Travel (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CBRL


SNBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNBR  Sleep Number (0.0)


JBLU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBLU  Jetblue Airways (0.0)


AGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGO  Assured Guaranty (-0.0)


CLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLW  Clearwater Paper (0.01)


ELF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ELF  e.l.f. Beauty (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CBRL


AU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AU  AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (-0.87)


CRTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRTO  Criteo (-0.89)


EPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPI  WisdomTree India Earnings (-0.89)


CRUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRUS  Cirrus Logic (-0.9)


CL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CL  Colgate-Palmolive (-0.92)







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