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CCK Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CCK's strong market position in sustainable packaging and recent upward price trend suggest potential for continued growth. The historical mean-reverting pattern supports bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent institutional selling signal caution. Macro risks, including economic slowdowns, could impact profitability, leading to downside pressure.

Potential Outcomes: CCK maintains growth momentum with a 55% probability, while macroeconomic risks pose a 30% chance of downward impact. There's a 15% likelihood of acquisition-fueled growth.

Trading Oracle: Consider a short debit spread, targeting $85/$90 strikes expiring in April, to capitalize on potential volatility drops and mean reversion. This balances the bullish trend with macro uncertainties, offering a favorable risk-reward.

February 13, 2025

Crown Holdings Forecast

CCK Crown Holdings

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CCK

SO Southern (0.9)

AFL Aflac (0.87)

FE Firstenergy (0.87)

RDFN Redfin (0.87)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.86)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CCK

NOMD Nomad Foods (-0.0)

CRC California Resources (-0.0)

CMC Commercial Metals (-0.01)

WHR Whirlpool (-0.01)

KOLD ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CCK

BBWI Bath & Body Works (-0.73)

SONY Sony Group Corporation (-0.74)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.77)

INDI Indie Semiconductor (-0.78)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.8)

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