Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: CCK is positioned for growth as metal packaging demand rises. The mean reversion pattern and an implied volatility surface favor bullish trades. Institutional support suggests a positive sentiment ahead.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, which could trigger a price decline. Economic headwinds and a recent trend of increased put option activity amplify the bearish outlook.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1) 50% chance: CCK maintains market position amidst ongoing volatility.
• 2) 30% chance: Economic pressures trigger a sharp decline, particularly if implied volatility spikes significantly.
• 3) 20% chance: CCK rebounds due to heightened demand in sustainable packaging.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a long debit spread by buying $92.50 calls and selling $95 calls for January 2025 expirations. This strategy capitalizes on expected price recovery while leveraging current high implied volatility, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio with potentially strong profit margins.

November 28, 2024