CCS Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: CCS could capitalize on affordable housing demand. Recent social media mentions lean optimistic Helium.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and backwardation in term structure suggest significant market stress, pointing to potential further declines HeliumHelium.




Potential Outcomes: Rates drop boosting demand (20%), high rates reduce margins (50%), stabilizing price (30%) Helium.




Trading Oracle: Focus on short-term credit spreads due to high implied volatility. Target volatility decay by selling out-of-the-money puts, expiring within 1-3 months.



January 16, 2025


Century Communities Forecast

CCS        Century Communities











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CCS



LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.93)


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.79)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (0.79)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.76)


VRNS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNS  Varonis Systems (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CCS



GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (0.0)


ENTG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENTG  Entegris (-0.0)


ONON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONON  On (0.01)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (0.01)


SUPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPN  Supernus Pharmaceuticals (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CCS



SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (-0.58)


PLBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLBY  PLBY (-0.58)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.59)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.62)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.79)









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