Bullish Case: CENT's current elevated implied volatility signifies strong market expectations for price movement. Historical data suggests a favorable return potential, especially over longer holding periods.

Bearish Case: High insider selling raises concerns about investor sentiment, while increased implied volatility indicates market apprehension, suggesting a possible downward pressure on prices.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Insider selling drives prices down (estimated 30% chance).
2. Improved supply chain dynamics bolster price recovery (25% chance).
3. Positive earnings revisions trigger bullish sentiment (20% chance).
4. Continued market mean reversion caps gains (25% chance).

Trading Oracle: Implement a short-term bullish debit spread using CENT $40 and $45 calls. With high implied volatility, this trade captures potential upside while controlling risk. Focus on a 30-60 day horizon, ready to adjust based on earnings outcomes and insider activity. Maintain flexibility to pivot if sentiment shifts significantly.

December 18, 2024