CENT Forecast


Bullish Case: CENT's resilient earnings in a recovering market, combined with relatively lower mean reversion risk, suggests potential upside. Historical data indicates a tendency for positive returns over longer holding periods.


Bearish Case: High insider selling and recent significant price drops signal insider confidence erosion, coupled with increased implied volatility, indicating market apprehension. Exacerbated by potential supply disruptions.


Potential Outcomes:

1. INSIDER SELLING ACCELERATION: 30%. Company insiders continue selling, impacting sentiment negatively.

2. EARNINGS BEAT: 25%. Positive earnings revisions leading to upside.

3. SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: 20%. Ongoing supply chain issues causing operational inefficiency.

4. MEAN REVERSION CONTINUES: 25%. The stock's tendency to revert could limit gains.


Trading Oracle: Execute short-term bullish debit spread on $35 and $40 strikes focusing on mean reversion. Based on historical stability and moderate upside, expect implied volatility narrowing. Use a 45-60 day outlook for risk-balanced leverage. Monitor insider selling and exit if adverse price action occurs around support levels.


July 16, 2024


Central Garden & Pet Forecast

CENT      Central Garden & Pet











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Uncorrelated Assets

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CWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWEB  Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bu (0.0)


CBOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBOE  Cboe Global Markets (0.0)


HEES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HEES  H&E Equipment Services (0.0)


UGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UGI  UGI (0.0)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CENT



ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.57)


PLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLTR  Palantir (-0.6)


CRTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRTO  Criteo (-0.6)


RYAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RYAN  Ryan Specialty (-0.61)


ORCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORCL  Oracle (-0.62)





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