CHN Forecast




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: China's economic resilience, driven by technological innovations and green energy investments, suggests a sustainable growth trajectory. If GDP surpasses U.S. levels by 2030, increased foreign investments may elevate CHN significantly.




Bearish Case: Continued geopolitical tensions, particularly over Taiwan, and potential sanctions could severely disrupt trade dynamics and investor confidence, leading to substantial CHN price declines.




Potential Outcomes:
  • China surpasses U.S. GDP by 2030 (35% chance).
  • Escalating tensions over Taiwan lead to international sanctions (40% chance).
  • Tech sector growth spurs market recovery (45% chance).
  • Stalling economy due to property crisis (25% chance).




Trading Oracle: Adopt a debit spread strategy on CHN targeting a 1-year horizon, as the combination of tech growth and potential geopolitical risks presents a favorable high reward-to-risk opportunity. Buy longer-dated calls and sell shorter-dated calls to optimize capital usage and manage volatility. Positioning for bullish returns with a keen eye on potential downturns.



December 17, 2024


China Forecast

CHN        China











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CAPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAPR  Capricor Therapeutics (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CHN



BBAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBAI  BigBear.ai (-0.0)


CRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNT  Ceragon Networks (0.0)


SCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCS  Steelcase (0.0)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (-0.01)


JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOBY  Joby Aviation (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CHN



TWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWI  Titan International (-0.62)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.63)


IGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGT  International Game Technology (-0.64)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.69)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.75)









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