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CHN Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: China's focus on green energy and tech advancements positions it for potential growth, countering recent economic downturns and geopolitical challenges.

Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions, particularly over Taiwan, and an aging workforce pose long-term threats to China's economic stability, affecting CHN's performance.

Potential Outcomes: Potential military escalation with Taiwan (10%), steady economic growth through tech (50%), internal unrest impacts (20%), international sanctions (20%).

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread on CHN with a 6-month horizon, leveraging tech and green energy growth. Focus on buying longer-dated calls to manage volatility, aiming for high reward-to-risk given SPY’s rising implied volatility.

February 23, 2025

China Forecast

CHN China

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