Bullish Case: China demonstrates potential for sustainable growth, increased clean energy production [Metaculus], and environmentally friendly agricultural practices [South China Morning Post].


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Bearish Case: Economic slowdown, geopolitical tensions with Taiwan and the US [Metaculus], and continuing COVID-19 outbreaks [Metaculus] may hinder China's progress and global relations.


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Takeaway: Despite challenges, China shows potential for sustainable growth and positive change, but must navigate complex geopolitical and economic obstacles.


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Potential Outcomes:

1. Armed conflict with Taiwan by 2024 (1%) [Metaculus];

2. Declaring independence by 2050 (37%) [Metaculus];

3. Emissions reduction by 2030 (57%) [Metaculus];

4. Economy surpassing the US by 2030 (30%) [Metaculus];

5. Engaging in Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024 (8%) [Metaculus];

6. Experiencing US-China war before 2035 (15%) [Metaculus].


May 20, 2023



Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with CHN



KWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [KWEB]  KraneShares CSI China Internet (0.9)


FXI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [FXI]  BTC iShares China (0.9)


BILI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BILI]  Bilibili (0.88)


DADA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DADA]  Dada Nexus (0.83)


JD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [JD]  JD.com (0.83)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to CHN



PUBM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PUBM]  PubMatic (0.0)


HDGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [HDGE]  Advisorshares Trust - Ranger Equity Bear (-0.0)


AMP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [AMP]  Ameriprise Financial (-0.0)


FL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [FL]  Foot Locker (0.0)


ERF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ERF]  Enerplus (0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against CHN



UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UNM]  Unum (-0.52)


NU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [NU]  Nu Holdings (-0.55)


ABEV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ABEV]  Ambev (-0.56)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [HUM]  Humana (-0.56)


PGNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PGNY]  Progyny (-0.57)


CHN News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.

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