CIA Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Rising focus on tech warfare against China and potential regulatory shifts may enhance CIA valuation, with opportunities in AI and biotech sectors.




Bearish Case: Historical trends show a strong likelihood of negative returns, exacerbated by internal challenges and geopolitical risks affecting investor confidence.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Policy innovation spurs tech growth (30%).
  • Geopolitical tensions heighten market risk (35%).
  • Continued flat performance without catalysts (35%).



May 27, 2025


Citizens Forecast

CIA        Citizens











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CIA



TRGP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRGP  Targa Resources (0.84)


VYM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VYM  Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx (0.81)


SATS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SATS  EchoStar (0.81)


CRH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRH  CRH Plc (0.78)


GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CIA



DPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DPZ  Dominos Pizza (0.0)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (0.0)


O Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   O  Realty Income (0.0)


SNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNY  Sanofi (0.01)


ABNB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABNB  Airbnb (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CIA



STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (-0.65)


NUVB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NUVB  Nuvation Bio (-0.66)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.67)


ELF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ELF  e.l.f. Beauty (-0.67)


FLGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLGT  Fulgent Genetics (-0.71)









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