CIA Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: CIA's price-to-book ratio of 0.7 indicates potential undervaluation, suggesting upside if broader market sentiment improves and policy changes boost demand.




Bearish Case: The historical return surface shows a likelihood of negative returns, exacerbated by high implied volatility and potential geopolitical instability.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Market recovery from undervaluation: 40%.
  • Increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions: 35%.
  • Regulatory challenges impact profitability: 25%.




Trading Oracle: Consider a long volatility strategy with debit spreads. Buy CIA 08/15/2025 5.00 C and sell 7.50 C. This captures potential upward movement with high reward-to-risk. Focus on short-term reversals within 6 months, leveraging policy shifts and market sentiment changes.



January 03, 2025


Citizens Forecast

CIA        Citizens











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CIA



CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (0.88)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.85)


TDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDS  Telephone And Data Systems (0.84)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.83)


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CIA



UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (-0.0)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.0)


WHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WHR  Whirlpool (0.01)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.01)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CIA



EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.79)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.79)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.8)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.84)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.84)









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