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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish

Bullish Case: CIBC may experience growth driven by improvements in business volume recovery, supported by institutional investments and potentially favorable interest rates, positively impacting profitability and stock price.

Bearish Case: Rising interest rates may lead to deteriorating credit quality, negatively impacting CIBC's financial health and resulting in a downturn in stock price, given the current economic volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Business volume growth (70%) from market recovery.

2) Credit quality issues (30%) from rates.

3) Flat performance (20%) due to macroeconomic conditions.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish credit spread by selling $55 put options and buying $52.50 puts, capturing premium with a 70% profit probability and annualized return potential near 22%. Given low implied volatility, a stable bullish stance is advisable.

August 27, 2024


Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce Forecast

CM      Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CM


RSP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RSP  Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (0.96)


VBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VBR  Vanguard Small Cap Value (0.96)


FAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAS  Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares (0.95)


DVY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVY  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Select Dividend (0.95)


VB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VB  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Small Cap (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CM


HDB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HDB  HDFC (-0.0)


KNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KNX  Knight-Swift Transportation (-0.0)


GUSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GUSH  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.0)


JNJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNJ  Johnson & Johnson (-0.0)


CFLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CFLT  Confluent (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CM


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.87)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.9)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.95)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.96)



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