Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Bullish momentum is driven by recent earnings surprises, alongside increased brand visibility and strong demand for healthy beverages. The low historical volatility suggests potential upside as COCO capitalizes on health trends.

Bearish Case: Concerns arise from elevated market uncertainties, especially with the significant volume of put options traded. Potential overvaluation and external economic pressures could lead to a corrective downturn in prices.

Potential Outcomes:

1.

**20%

** chance of 10% price increase due to positive earnings.

2.

**25%

** chance of a stagnation near current levels due to mixed market signals.

3.

**40%

** chance COCO retraces significantly (10-15%) driven by external market factors if trends shift.

4.

**15%

** chance of a strong rebound as health trends gain traction.

Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread by buying COCO 35.00 C (implied vol 85.9%) and selling 30.00 C (implied vol 75.2%), targeting a duration aligning with upcoming earnings releases. This strategy captures volatility while protecting against downside risk, leveraging the low historical return certainty for robust upside potential.

November 14, 2024